The Wages of Sin

So the government is looking to tax alcohol and tobacco. Well fine, I guess it would increase the coffers with extra revenue but I get the strangest feeling that all this will lead to is an increase in smuggling. That's just the pessimist in me.

Alcohol and tobacco tax or "Sin Taxes" as they're called, don't spark the same kind of controversy as a VAT tax does. The Church says cigarettes and booze are the devil right? So people just go along with it since it's some kind of good tax that curbs down on bad behavior. This leads to an interesting question; Since these "sin" products are just luxuries and not necessities like a VAT tax would affect, then won't people simply just choose to consume less of the "sin" products? It's not like a man must have beer or a cigarette every hour (there are addicts I know, but they aren't that many) so wouldn't the average Juan just cut down his intake? So instead of smoking a stick every break for example, wouldn't he be more inclined to just smoke one every other break?

Of course, I'm assuming that majority are moderate smokers/drinkers where their demands are more elastic. I guess if we're a nation of borderline addicts who must have their fix, this would work very well. But I just feel all this will lead to lower consumption, which would generate less revenue than expected, and an increased incentive to buy smuggled goods. Worst case scenario? Consumption decreases to the point where there is a loss instead. Who knows? Either I think too much like a soulless economist or my view on human nature is really that bleak. I hope I'm wrong since the government could use more cash (What the cash will be used for is another story) but you can't just take behavior out of the equation and replace it with an exact estimate of how much is going to be made.

I don't smoke or drink anyway so whatever.